An ending, and a new beginning. Here's to the next 25 years.

I started this blog in 2000, with the tagline "Thoughts on human interaction over the next 25 years." I meant computer mediated interaction in particular, and it's been a rich vein. The commercial internet, e-commerce, forums, web2.0, social networks, online games, and more, the web delivered everything it promised between 2000-2025 and more. As a product manager I got to see it all, and have in hand in more than I would have imagined.

There were detours. 9/11. The 2008 financial crises. Law and Economics. Family. But having hit the quarter century mark, I'm officially closing this chapter of winterspeak and opening a new one.

These three essays crystalized what I've been thinking about, and touch on the emerging capabilities I see that I think will be as impactful as HTML and TCP/IP was at the turn of the century.

1. A Vision For Product Teams. Marty Cagan, who has been so prescient about so much, and continued to share the best practical product advice online, lays it out: 

"I absolutely believe significant disruption is coming [due to Generative AI] whether I write about this or not – in this case, mainly to countless product owners, product managers, product designers and engineers". 

He is correct.

2. The End of Programming as we know it. Tim O'Reilly, who has also been so prescient about so much, observes:

"There’s a lot of chatter in the media that software developers will soon lose their jobs to AI. I don’t buy it. It is not the end of programming. It is the end of programming as we know it today... The magic that’s coming now is the most powerful yet. And that means that we’re beginning a profound period of exploration and creativity, trying to understand how to make that magic work and to derive new advantages from its power. Smart developers who adopt the technology will be in demand because they can do so much more, focusing on the higher-level creativity that adds value."

I understand why engineers are nervous. I've heard arguments saying all the junior dev spots will be automated away, and I've seen shops remove all their senior devs. This future in unwritten. 

 3. A throw-away post by Josh Lu highlights the opportunity:

"Vibe coding will change your org chart. How will you adapt? Multiplayer vibe coding into medium-fidelity prototypes is just over the horizon, and it's going to be a massive deal. This isn't just an incremental step in product development; it's a sea change that will unlock entirely new ways for small teams to build mighty things. The first companies to solve for the challenges below will enjoy huge advantages."

The core function of a product team remains the same: develop a valuable, usable, and feasible solution to customers' problems. We have more tools now. Let's solve more problems.

I don't know if I'll continue on this URL, or go to a more 2025 platform like substack, or maybe both. Either way, interesting times again.