Trump, Brexit, and Aggregate Demand
A lot has been written about Trump, Brexit, and the so-called revolt against the Davos consensus that's been in place since Clinton (or earlier). All of it may be true, or have some truth to it, but fundamentally the economics problems today stem from a lack of aggregate demand.
I was at an econtalk between Russ Roberts and John Cochrane, and while I was struck by how incidental the usual libertarian talking points sounded, I thought that a point Cochrane made about market size was very insightful. He said "the larger the market, the greater the gains from specialization" which is obviously true. There is something very valuable in large, open, free markets and to lose that is a tragedy.
It's a tragedy happening right now as middle class workers, seeing jobs slip away, are voting for protectionist trade policies. And I'm a Chicago Boy, but still support this.
I support this because I don't see an equally strong fiscal response creating enough demand to generate the new jobs these people can do. Suppose I was willing to pay a 15% premium for a "made in America" product. But my budget constraint means I cannot. If I had more money, I would, as I would consume local manufacture as a consumption good. But taxes are so high that on the margin I end up not doing it.
I think the US can produce high quality products, and I think there is a premium it can capture for local manufacture, but I also think that the population's budget constraint means that that market is too small to employ all those individuals with manufacturing skills who have seen their work go overseas. A larger deficit would meet household's savings demand, relax their budget constraint, and I think drive demand that would help put those who produce tradable domestically back to work.
I was at an econtalk between Russ Roberts and John Cochrane, and while I was struck by how incidental the usual libertarian talking points sounded, I thought that a point Cochrane made about market size was very insightful. He said "the larger the market, the greater the gains from specialization" which is obviously true. There is something very valuable in large, open, free markets and to lose that is a tragedy.
It's a tragedy happening right now as middle class workers, seeing jobs slip away, are voting for protectionist trade policies. And I'm a Chicago Boy, but still support this.
I support this because I don't see an equally strong fiscal response creating enough demand to generate the new jobs these people can do. Suppose I was willing to pay a 15% premium for a "made in America" product. But my budget constraint means I cannot. If I had more money, I would, as I would consume local manufacture as a consumption good. But taxes are so high that on the margin I end up not doing it.
I think the US can produce high quality products, and I think there is a premium it can capture for local manufacture, but I also think that the population's budget constraint means that that market is too small to employ all those individuals with manufacturing skills who have seen their work go overseas. A larger deficit would meet household's savings demand, relax their budget constraint, and I think drive demand that would help put those who produce tradable domestically back to work.
posted by winterspeak at
5:55 AM
4 Comments:
Winterspeak,
Suppose I was willing to pay a 15% premium for a "made in America" product. But my budget constraint means I cannot... but I also think that the population's budget constraint means that that market is too small to employ all those individuals with manufacturing skills who have seen their work go overseas.
The policy of tariffs means that the fiscal policy multiplier is larger so that even if the *price* is higher, household incomes are higher too. Workers can be employed domestically since aggregate demand will be higher.
The one thing that economists always miss when calculating the costs and benefits of induced free trade is that it weakens the "state-ness" of the trading partners. No one ever tells us we'll have to sacrifice being American in order to be "free traders", and no economist ever figures into the calculation.
A larger deficit is not necessarily the answer. Tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations will result in a bigger deficit but the result will be more billionaires and the same aggregate demand. What is needed is tax relief for the middle class (eliminate the payroll tax). This would drive aggregate demand up and unemployment down giving workers more bargaining power (a positive feedback system). The resulting fiscal outcome could even be a surplus if business invest more due to the increase in demand.
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